Monthly Archives: June 2013

Hello

Today, Monday June 24, witnessed another volatile day as the world worried if the patient would breathe on his own, after it was discussed last week by Ben Bernanke that the breathing machine would be disconnected in the future (see my earlier analogy reference this example).   The markets closed down on above average volume.

It is my opinion that a move to the G-Fund is in order, to reflect 100% future contributions and 100% of your account balance, to be shifted to G-Fund.

Me, personally, I am still a cheerleader of our economy (the recovering “patient”) and believe things are slowing turning around, and have my own facts to prove it.  However that does not mean I am going to try to catch a falling knife, and it is my opinion that a precautionary move should be made to G-Fund.

I might add that I have struggled with crafting this post, as my feelings about the overall economy and long-term stock market are very positive, however trading and investing on emotion is an amateur mistake, and I had to remind myself to step back, look at the market itself, and pull the trigger accordingly.   Unfortunately, we have had some down days and we need to protect our account balances.

On that note, I invite everyone to take a look at this 06-24-13 video, courtesy of CNBC, in which Rick Santelli is interviewed.  The short version is Santelli’s position is that the market is going to do what the market is going to do.

I am moving my balance and future contributions to 100% G-Fund.  Thanks for reading everyone…hopefully these storms clouds clear up in a few weeks.

– Bill Pritchard

In the “other news” category, I wanted to post an update to a very important project that has been in development.

On June 18, 2013, the San Angelo, Texas City Council approved the renaming of Rio Vista Park, to Jaime Padron Memorial Park, to honor USMC veteran and Police Officer Jaime Padron, who was killed on duty, in 2012.

Video Link is at http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=zQSUYXfLJq8

Please scroll to 0:29:23 in the video and hit play, to view the City Council discussion of this project.

Below, is a Google Earth image of the park, which is under renovation and when work is completed, will be re-opened under Jaime’s name.  I will be there in July and will take some pictures of the ongoing renovation efforts.

This project was the result of many folks coming together and working towards a common goal, and as the initiator of this important project, I can’t say enough thanks to the great people in the San Angelo City Council, specifically Mr. Johnny Silvas, of Single Member District 3, Matt Baldwin, Brian Bylsma, and Johnny Padron.  Thanks to Austin Police Chief Art Acevedo for his tremendous support.  These great folks were the reason that this was successful.

Thank YOU

– Bill Pritchard

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Hello everyone

Today, Ben Bernanke stated that the Fed would likely start reducing its stimulus program.  Markets closed down on above average volume, but above key trend lines.

I want to allow this week to “close out”, after which I will take a look at things and share my insights early next week.   I might add that markets typically panic for a day or two, then re-stabilize, when bad news is released.

NOTE:  My position is that the US Economy is a hospital patient, hooked up to life support (Federal stimulus/QE programs).  Well, the patient is starting to get healthier, and it may be time to remove life support and allow the patient to breathe on his own.  This is good for the patient, not bad (allowing him to breathe on his own).   The patient will cough and moan and probably ask for that machine again, but big picture, if the patient starts breathing on his own again, and continues to do so, the patient will be stronger and better-off.

During the window of time, between when the doctor’s fingers hit the “OFF” switch on the machine, and when the patient starts to breathe unassisted, during this transitional period, the onlookers in the room will be worried, nervous, and probably praying.   Right now, today, we are in that period.

I had dinner with a fellow subscriber last night who was TDY to my city, and this topic came up.    My explanation sounds a little corny, I wish I could produce a Princeton PhD dissertation regarding financial friction and macroeconomics (someone else wrote it) , but my explanation gets the point across.

Lets see how the week finishes up, and expect another update soon.   If you find this site useful or informative, and it has materially impacted your Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) performance, I ask that you share it with your friends and coworkers.  I can’t place advertisements in the Wall Street Journal, and rely on word-of-mouth for building my subscriber base.   Thanks for reading

– Bill Pritchard

TSP Allocation:  100% S-Fund but monitoring things closely over next few days.

Hello and Good Evening to everyone

The month of May is behind us, and while a few of you have emailed me regarding the “Sell in May” strategy, I advocated that we let the market tell us what to do, and respond to the market itself.  It is very hard to “outguess” the market.  My investing methodology can be categorized into the Trend Following category, and this past month was a good example of why this strategy tends to be successful.

It should be noted that the SP-500 Index closed at 1582.70 on May 1, and on May 31, closed at 1630.74.  This represents a 3.0 percent gain in May on the index.  In today’s turbulent market climate, I am happy to take any gain the market gives us.    Please see below table representing the official TSP site monthly returns.

As can be seen, the top fund for May 2013 was the S-Fund.  It should be noted that the I-Fund was down -3% for May.  This is while the US Indexes were generally all positive.  Some may recall my observations regarding the I-Fund, observing that its April performance may or may not have been sustainable.  The I-Fund is a weird animal, much more susceptible to international politics and global economic turbulence.   This can at times put tremendous gains on the table, and sometimes take them away.  The I-Fund sometimes runs in sync with US markets, and sometimes it does not (as shown by May’s behavior).   This is not a “knock” against the I-Fund…however at times the I-Fund requires that your seat belt be tightened a little more than if you are in the S/C Funds.

June opened up on a positive note, with the indexes performing very well on June 3, 2014, closing higher than the prior day, on slightly higher than average volume.  I would have liked the volume to be a little higher, but I will take what I can get.  On June 4, 2013 however, some nervousness about the Federal Reserve’s low-interest rate and bond buying programs (aka QE or Quantitative Easing) have caused the markets to go lower.  One June 4, the SP-500 closed lower than June 3, on average volume.   No “high volume sell off” occurred on June 4, nor did it trade lower than its low of June 3, which was 1622.72.   However, we still need to monitor things and keep the trigger finger ready for G-Fund if the situation dictates.  See chart below.

As a counter to this, Big-picture wise, we are seeing positive news reports regarding the economy, involving reports of rising home prices (indicating buying, versus selling of homes), reports of rising car sales, and other things.  In summary, I am not (not yet) going into panic mode over the Federal Reserve market nervousness….I see other positive signs regarding the economy.

At 10:15 PM Central Time June 4, the SP-500 evening futures contract found support and did not trade below the daytime session.  This usually (but not always) foreshadows what will happen on the next day’s stock market trading activity.  See chart:

Once again (not bragging, but….), this site provided accurate insight into the best performing fund.  Since January, I have expressed my opinion that the S-Fund is the place to be, barring the move to G-Fund in April, due to North Korea’s threat of nuclear war.  However, most can agree that since January, this site has provided accurate and informative guidance into the funds, ten of which exist, and almost every month since January, I have successfully called the top fund, out of ten potential choices.  An internet search will reveal many “TSP advice” websites, mostly all subscription/payment based.  This site has likely outperformed them all (to my knowledge) and is free.  If you find this site useful, please pass it to your friends and co-workers.  Thank you for the interest and the numerous positive emails.

Thanks again for reading….

– Bill Pritchard

TSP Allocation:  100% S-Fund

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