Daily Archives: February 27, 2013

Feb 26 Update

Hello everyone –

I am trying to post updates every two weeks or so, since most of the audience gets enough emails as it is, and do not need more, but I have received numerous emails regarding the Sequestration situation.   I am still 100% S-Fund for the present time.  The markets have sold-off somewhat this past week due to fears that it may not get resolved, however support is holding at the 50-day Moving Average of the SP 500.  This is a trend line that I use to gauge the markets health, amongst other things.

Today, the markets closed higher, mostly on positive housing news and positive reports from major retailers.

While Sequestration is not a “good thing” for most of us, I question the experts who say it is bad for the economy.  I am not so sure that Home Depot will stop selling leaf blowers, or Apple stop selling MacBooks, or Johnson and Johnson stop selling Band-Aids, on March 1.   Just my opinion.   Will it affect defense contractors and companies such as Lockheed Martin ?   Yes.    Could it have been done better, prior to reaching Sequestration ?  Yes, I think so.  But here we are, Feb-26, and we have no solution in plain view.

Some may remember the 1995 Government shutdown.

Lets take a look below at the SP 500 Index from that time frame.   Yes, I concede that the 90’s were the “boom years” of the stock market and witnessed many stocks going to record highs.   That bull market was a train that was hard to stop.  But, the below chart shows basically not even a hiccup during the shutdown.

SP-500-1995

Is 2013 different ?  Yes maybe it is.  Is it the same ?  Maybe it is.  I don’t know.  But I am not so sure that market-wise, big picture, some reduced government spending is bad for the markets.   This week observed some volatility and hiccups, yes.     More conservative investors may wish to go to G-Fund during these periods of volatility.   However I am still 100% S-Fund.

As always, thank you for reading.

Bill Pritchard