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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to the followers of The Fed Trader !

Bill Pritchard

Hello from Wichita KS airport and free wi-fi

The fiscal cliff negotiations have broken down and now, everyone returns to the table after Christmas. Observe that Dec 31 is the deadline

last night, SP 500 futures went down 20 points, which is a huge move down. Today, Dec 21, I expect the market to go down, likely severely.

hopefully most followers of mine are in G Fund and thus their balances are not exposed to this potential damage today.

Thank you…I wanted to get that out there….I will monitor things and update as we get developments.

I am 100% G Fund for now

– Bill P

Hello to all

This past week the markets flashed some signs of optimism, and penetrated the 1425 level on the SP 500, which I had previously discussed was the “resistance level” for the index.   See chart below

This occurred on Dec-11 and Dec-12, likely a positive initial response to the FOMC meeting and the fact that the International Monetary Fund agreed to additional aid payments to Greece (“publicly announced” on Dec-13).   On Dec-12, in the morning, it climbed steadily and hit 1438, a new recent high over recent months.   Absent additional information, this would be good news, having successfully punched thru the 1425 level.  However, after the FOMC’s intentions were disclosed, the market quickly “sold off” and went lower on the afternoon of Dec-12.   As of Dec-14, the last trading day of the week, the index has not recovered.   Please see below 3-day chart, showing minute-to-minute “tick data” of the SP 500 index

Based on the above market behavior, and the inability to stay above 1425 for very long, I am still in G-Fund.  Lets remember that midnight (or 11:59PM ?) on Dec-31 is the deadline for the Fiscal Cliff issues to be resolved.  After that passes, mandatory tax hikes and other things go into effect.  Obviously with negative market consequences.  As a reminder, during Christmas week, very little volume will occur in the markets, as most money managers and traders will be off during that week.  Any market moves that week (up or down) are questionable, as without sufficient volume, they are untrustworthy.

100% G-Fund for now.  Thank You

Bill P

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Good Evening everyone

I have updated multiple sections of this site, to include an “About” section, which provides some insight into my biography, including some of my published works regarding the financial markets.  Also, I have revised the “Disclaimer” to ensure that it is clear and understandable.   I have installed a LinkedIn badge in the event anyone wants to take a look at my profile over there.

Once again, “Thank You” for the interest in the site, and if you find the site useful (or at least entertaining…) , please tell your coworkers and buddies.  Most of this sites readership comes from word of mouth and networking, and I am happy to try to provide this service, “from one of you, to one of you”.   Again, thank you.

Markets:

Now on to the more serious stuff.  Since my Thanksgiving update, the markets have had three (3) days of accumulation, which means that due to volume behavior and price behavior on the indexes, it is probable that large institutions are buying stock and accumulating positions.  These days occurred on Nov 16, Nov 30, and Dec 5.

A glance at the SP 500 chart shows that the index is having a hard time breaking past the 1425 level.  It kind of almost reaches it, and goes lower again.   My confidence would be a lot higher once it goes past 1425.  See chart image for visual explanation.

Which causes me to arrive to this conclusion:  The markets are still not in full Rally mode, and thus I am still in the G-Fund.   The biggest speed bump in front of the markets is the Fiscal Cliff situation, which I am hesitant to roll the dice and bet my TSP balance that it will be resolved soon.  Greek is still a problem, although I think everyone is so sick of Greece that it is “priced into the market” at this point.

Summary:   Still 100% G-Fund

Bill P

I wanted to say “Thank You” for the interest in this site and wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving.   I am also very happy to announce that the popular “FERS Guide” written by fellow 1811, Dan Jamison, has been updated, and two versions now exist, one for 1811’s, and one for non-1811’s.   They are available here:

FERS Guide – Agent Version

FERS Guide – Non Agent Version

It should be noted that in the most recent release of his publication, Mr. Jamison has mentioned this website, The Fed Trader, as a resource that he uses.   A big “Thank You” for that mention to Mr. Jamison, who has numerous followers amongst many different agencies.

In market news, we are still dealing with Fiscal Cliff issues and some market concern over that.   Greece debt issues are also occupying the attention of the market.  Stock indexes trended higher over the last few days, however this was on light volume, due to the Thanskgiving holiday, and thus this trend is not fully trustworthy.

I remain 100% G-Fund for the time being.

Again, thank you for the interest and have a Happy Thanksgiving

Bill

Good afternoon

Due to fiscal cliff fears and the market response so far, I am recommending a protective move to 100% G-Fund.     The markets have sold off on multiple days, with above average volume, and I feel safer being in G-Fund right now.

Thank You everyone

Bill